I attended the annual Business Outlook Panel discussion November 16, 2022 at IU-East.

Faculty from the IU Kelley School of Business (Bloomington and IUPUI) along with faculty from IU-East’s School of Business and Economics painted a not-too-rosy picture for our community, our state, and our nation for 2023.

We are all very much aware that what we considered “transitory inflation” at the start of the year has become real inflation, the highest levels in 40 years. As such, the Federal Reserve has taken drastic measure to “reign-in” inflation with interest rake hikes, and other measures, called a “tightening” policy.

The national forecast for 2023 is weak to negative output growth, at least through the 2d and maybe 3rd quarters. If consumer spending picks back up, the current recession will quickly turnaround before the end of the calendar year. Employment growth will slow and job losses will occur through the same time period. The Unemployment Rate will rise from its 50-year low of 3.5% in 2022 by at least 1 to 3% by middle of 2023.

The strong US Dollar is making imports cheaper and foreign travel less expensive. However, the same strong US Dollar is making our exports more expensive to the receiving countries, and that will hurt states like Indiana (one of the Top 10 exporting states in the nation). As Hoosier exports decline, expect higher unemployment in Indiana than the national average listed above. Therefore, the Unemployment Rate in Indiana next year could peak at 5.5%.

One problem Indiana has is with the low education attainment levels of its workforce. That makes Indiana less attractive to high-tech employers and advanced manufacturing. Indiana ranks 31st for citizens with a high-school diploma, 43rd for bachelor’s degree, and 42 for advanced degrees. This makes our workforce highly dependent upon traditional manufacturing, which will be hurt the most during recessions.

At the Regional Level, Richmond and Wayne County also face many challenges. The Jan. to Aug. 2022 Unemployment Rate in Wayne County was 2.88% while the entire state averaged 2.79% and the nation was at 3.80%. In the region, Rush County had the lowest Unemployment Rate at 2.66% while Fayette County was the highest at 4.00%. Wayne County should expect to see the Unemployment Rate peak at 3% or slightly higher in 2023 as demand for manufactured goods slows through the 1st, 2d, and likely 3rd quarters.

Wages at the Regional Level (Weekly) were higher for most sectors with the overall Private Sector experiencing 7.33% increase. Management saw the highest gains at 41.95% while the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation saw the lowest drop declining 14.46%.

Regional Home Sales declined in 2022 (YTD), while prices increased. Wayne County had 9.7% fewer homes listed while the average sale price increased by 13.5%. Randolph County had a boom year with 20.7% more listings with average sale prices increasing by 14.0%.

This brings us to the IU-East Regional Business Confidence Index. The Future Expectation Index has declined by 5.1% in 2022, year-to-date.

The East-Central Indiana Business Survey asked many questions of business leaders and I will report on the final question. “How do you project the overall business and economic conditions in 2023 for your area?” 11.9% responded “Strongly Optimistic”. 35.1% responded
“Moderately Optimistic”. 24.6% responded “About The Same”. 23.1% responded “Moderately Pessimistic”. and 5.2% responded “Strongly Pessimistic”.

The final takeaway is to closely watch Holiday Shopping this season. Household Holiday Spending is a Bellwether for the following year’s economy. If spending is as high this year as last year, expect a soft landing in 2023. If spending is drastically lower than last year, expect a hard landing that will linger through the 3rd quarter.

In 2009 we purchased a one-owner, 45,000 mile, 1999 Ford F150 for $6,995 from a GMC-Buick dealer who had taken it in on trade. It set on their back lot for a few months and was listed at $10,995 – KBB retail was $10,000. After three weeks of negotiating we purchased it with $6,995 in cash and drove it for 13 1/2 years. Because they were a GMC dealer, none of their customers wanted a Ford. There’s another lesson there.

I just sold it for $1,000, because it needed about $2,000 in repairs, and we cannot own a vehicle longer than our previous record of 14 years with a Chevy Blazer my wife dearly loved until it’s engine failed.

The moral of the story is, besides two sets of tires and brakes, three batteries, an alternator and 2 air conditioning recharges, it cost us about $500 per year to own. The average monthly payment for a new half-ton pickup truck is currently $600 per month for 72 months – you do the math.

Taking your time to purchase the right vehicle at the right price with cash is smart, very smart. Purchasing a brand new car or truck with debt (a loan) is dumb, very dumb. Don’t be dumb, be smart.

P.S. That truck was driven daily about 8-10 miles to work, made 1 trip from Indiana to South Carolina and back, 1 trip to Northwest Michigan and back, and lots of 200 mile round trips throughout Indiana and Ohio, and helped countless friends and family move beds, dressers, appliances, et.. The new owner spent another $2000 in engine repairs and is giving it to his tech-school bound grandson where it will see service for at least another 4 years. Once again purchased with cash. Now, what to do with this extra $1,000 since I now drive a company-owned vehicle to and from work? Hmmm… I’m thinking a relaxing week at a cabin on a lake in the woods sounds very nice. See ya!

As a person who struggled with financial debt for too long, I can say that paying off the final debt in August 2020, our mortgage, was the second best day of my life. The first being the day I wed my high-school sweetheart exactly 35 years earlier. Like 80% of Americans, we always had debt and believed the lie that debt was a fact of life.

Ten years ago, while teaching Personal Finance at a community college, I discovered Dave Ramsey and his solution to living a better life being debt-free. Dave’s 7 Baby Steps to Financial Freedom really work. Ron’s 14,000 Man Steps to a life riddled with debt and the stress and anxiety that comes with it, wasn’t working.

Like most Americans, we had the ubiquitous in-over-our-heads first mortgage shortly after our wedding, a new car that was totaled within four months that led to a better understanding of what Actual Cash Value (ACV) auto insurance meant (left us with $4,000 still owed to the bank), Credit Cards to pay for things we couldn’t afford to impress people we didn’t know or like, Vacations we couldn’t really afford, 90-days-same-as-cash appliances and jewelry that turned into 27% interest loan over 2 years, you name it – we did it.

Except Student Loans. My parents could not afford to send any of their four children to college. As the youngest, I knew what was coming so I worked and saved like crazy. Because I worked all through high school and took a Gap Year before starting college, I was able to pay for my first undergraduate degree with cash. Then after beginning my first career as an engineer, my employer(s) helped pay for my three subsequent degrees, culminating in a PhD in Leadership. I never had to take a student loan, which was the best graduation gift my parents could have given me – the sense to work and save for what you want. I started working for other farmers at age 9, bought my first motorcycle at age 12 and my first car at age 15 (all with cash). Until I got married, then like most young couples, we expected a home and lifestyle similar to our parents even though they had 25 more years of work and savings than us.

Of all the Financial Gurus who tried to lead us out of the Dot Com Bubble, Housing Bubble, and the Great Recession, only Ramsey Solutions’ 7 Baby Steps Plan worked. It worked, and it worked every time, and it will always work. Yes, there are more complicated plans based upon sound mathematical principles, but math is not our problem, our problem is our behavior. If you want to better understand why we do what we do with money, read some of the latest books on Behavioral Economics. Like Dave Ramsey says, “Our money problems are only 20% knowledge, but they are 80% behavior.”

Over the course of almost 10 years, we paid off $20,000 in credit card debt, $20,000 car loan, and $78,000 mortgage.

If you want to know more, if you want help reducing the pressure, stress, and anxiety of financial debt, contact me. I’d be glad to chat with you. I want my story to be your story. Every morning I get up and do what I want, where I want, because I have no debt forcing me to work a stressful job I don’t like. I still have 4 part-time jobs, but I work my own schedule – I am in control of my life, not the bill collectors.

See my other website: http://www.ihelppeoplegetoutofdebt.org

Many organizations could move from Poor, to Good, to Great if they would stop Dumping on their workers and instead, start Developing Leaders. In the rush to simply unload tasks from their to-do list, too many leaders simply Dump the burden on their subordinates. The leaders focus solely on Getting Rid of the Task without thinking about long-term consequences. By quickly Dumping tasks, they inflict major damage on their workers’ and the organization’s morale. This Dumping is the result of short-term thinking.

Some leaders Delegate work, which requires a little more planning on their part; specifically, who to Delegate it to based upon many presumptions. They often presume the person most capable of handling that task should the one to whom it is Delegated. Or they presume it should be Delegated to the busiest person, because that person has proven themselves capable of completing Delegated tasks. These presumptions also lead to the demoralization of the organization’s most capable people.

The best leaders take time to Develop other Leaders within the organization. Although this is time consuming at first, this long-term view of organizational leadership not only increases morale, it increases productivity, and reduces employee turnover. I recommend a five-step process to Developing Leaders in any organizations:

1. Motivate them. Call your workers/team/subordinates together and motivate them to improve the organization. Leaders should have studied their people so they know what motivates them individually and in groups. Some desire recognition, some desire more money, while others are simply bored and desire more responsibility. So find out what motivates them and use that to boost the long-term effectiveness of the organization.
2. Empower them. Give them the authority to complete their jobs and the task you have set before them. Challenge them to apply their time and talents to the task and give them the Authority to complete it.
3. Delegate the task. Now that you have motivated and empowered them, send them out to do the job and expect great things. Ensure them they will be rewarded for their efforts and back off a little so they can complete the task – don’t micromanage them.
4. Communicate well and frequently, but don’t micromanage. Give them specific instructions for the task, tell them the expected outcomes including due dates, and check in on them without micromanaging. Ask them how it’s going, do they need any other resources to complete the task. If the task will take several days/weeks, ask them to communicate back to you their status at several milestones – don’t tell them when to report, don’t micromanage, but ask them to let you know when they have completed major steps or sections of the task.
5. Evaluate them. Since you have created an non-confrontational, non-micromanaging communications channel with them, evaluating their performance should feel natural. And they should expect feedback because they have been communicating with you all along.

Developing Leaders will take an investment of your time, but the time and problems you avoid in the long term will be worth it.

For a Biblical perspective of this, study Luke 9:1-6 when Jesus sent out his 12 Disciples in groups of 2 to cleanse and heal a wounded nation.

I believe the sin of racism is founded in the roots of all sin – that is selfishness.

James, the brother of Jesus, wrote in 3:16 “For where you have envy and selfish ambition, there you will find disorder and every evil practice.”

When humans think more of themselves than of others, they are succumbing to the temptation of selfishness. When we think more of others than ourselves, then we are practicing selflessness. Only through an attitude of selflessness and by practicing selflessness everyday, will we rid our nation of racism.

Some people (tired and weary) view their daily lives as just doing a job, a grind, a chore to be completed. Winners on the other hand, see their daily lives as contributing to a better world while serving all humankind.

“An individual has not started living until he can rise above the narrow confines of his individualistic concerns to the broader concerns of all humanity” -Martin Luther King, Jr.

Yes, most of us have a job that produces an income that provides for us and our families. But it’s our attitude about that job the determines our success in serving humankind. Yes a job serves us and our families by providing income, but that same job can be a joy when viewed through the lens of how it serves humankind.

“I am convinced that my life belongs to the whole community and as long as I live, it is my privilege to do for it whatever I can, for the harder I work the more I live. I rejoice in life for its own sake. Life is no brief candle for me. It is a sort of splendid torch which I got hold of for a moment, and I want to make it burn as brightly as I possibly can before turning it over to future generations.” – George Bernard Shaw.

If your daily grind seems more like a smoldering ember than a brightly burning torch, then maybe you’re not doing enough for your fellow humans – humankind.

The foundation of a winning attitude is not fame and fortune, although those can be good results. A winning attitude is founded on the Significance of Success.

Anyone can be successful at anything with enough time and money to absorb the cost of failures. But to be successful at something significant requires Purpose. Success alone focuses its energies on fame, fans, and fortune. Significance focuses its energies on friends, family, and faith.

“The purpose of life is a life of purpose.” -Robert Byrne

When you decide to focus your energies on living a life of significance, your efforts will improve the world. Your family, friends, community, and the world will benefit more when you focus your talents on doing something significant instead of just doing something that will get you noticed (fame and fortune).

In any endeavor risks must be taken. To avoid risk is to avoid opportunity. If you are concerned about the risk due to fear, you are not alone. But if you respond to fear with with rational action steps, you can overcome that fear and accept the risk. But if you cower under the fear of failure, you will never take the risk that could lead to greater success.

“It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed” – Theodore Roosevelt.

You cannot avoid risk, but you can manage it with rational thinking and problem-solving. Learning to manage risk, is like learning how deep the water is and whether or not there are rocks under the surface before diving off a cliff. Rational thinkers don’t just dive off a cliff into unexplored waters, they practice due diligence and investigate what is under the surface before they dive in.

Think about this the next time you are presented an opportunity to do something different, something new, something risky. With a little bit of research and patient study, the reward might be greater than the risk.

As Richmond Common Council President, I got to work on several ordinances last night that will bring significant dollars to our community from both the Federal CARES Act and from new industry.

We approved Tax Abatements for Element 13 to build an aluminum foundry on 15.5 acres of our Midwest Industrial Park at Round Barn and Gaar Jackson Roads. This plant will bring 30 new jobs paying over $20/hour plus benefits. It will also bring $19,500,000 investments in a new plant and equipment.

We approved the appropriation of $250,000 through the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs office from the Federal COVID-19 Response Program. Businesses in the downtown and depot districts will be able to apply for grants to offset loses during the COVID-19 Health Emergency. This grant will be managed by the Center City Development Corporation, a National Trust Main Street Organization – commonly referred to as the Innovation Center.

We approved the appropriation of $1,561,464 for Roseview Transit through INDOT from the Federal CARES Act to support public transportation in our city.

We approved the appropriation of $30,000 for the Richmond Municipal Airport operations from the FAAs CARES Act funds.

We approved the appropriation of $807,385 to rehabilitate the Richmond Municipal Airport’s Taxiway A through another grant from the FAA.

During times of crisis, you can count on us to do everything we can to support our city.

Winners are proactive, not reactive. Winners create new circumstances instead of reacting to them.

If you know someone who is continually complaining about their circumstances, they are practicing reactivity.

If you know someone who is continually working to create a better life for themselves, their family, and their community, they are practicing proactivity.

During the stay-at-home orders of the Novel-Coronavirus Pandemic, reactive people are sitting around complaining about their circumstances. Proactive winners are finding joy in their circumstances and helping others.

“If you are proactive, you don’t wait for circumstances or other people to create perspective expanding experiences. You can consciously create your own.” – Stephen R. Covey.

If you don’t like the way things are, complaining won’t change your circumstances – action will.